Friedrich Merz is likely to be Germany’s next chancellor
Last updated on February 24th 2025
Seats in Bundestag
316 seats needed for majority
2025 result
2021 result
The projected results from Germany’s election show that parties on the right have made big gains in an election with the highest turnout in decades. The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), will be the largest force in parliament, albeit with an underwhelming 28.5% of the vote (see above). Their chancellor-candidate, Friedrich Merz, now faces the tricky task of building a coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by Alice Weidel, won nearly 21%, twice its share in 2021, and was dominant in its eastern heartlands. But because all major parties rule out working with the AfD, it will remain excluded from government.
Voters punished the three parties that made up the “traffic-light” coalition, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, before that government’s collapse in November. Mr Scholz’s SPD collapsed into third place, with its worst-ever result. The Greens did worse than in 2021. And since the pro-business Free Democrats fell below the 5% threshold for representation in parliament, they will have no seats at all.
The only winner on the left is Die Linke (The Left), the part-heirs to East Germany’s ruling communists, who surged late in the campaign to win almost 9% of the vote. This is despite competition from one of the party’s former leaders, who just over a year ago formed her own splinter outfit, the “left-conservative” Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Ms Wagenknecht’s party fell just 13,000 votes short of the 5% threshold (though it has threatened legal action over missing ballots from voters abroad).
Thanks to the FDP and BSW falling short of the 5% threshold, Mr Merz will have the numbers for a coalition with the SPD. But it will hold a narrow majority of just 13 seats. Coalition negotiations are likely to take two months or longer; Mr Merz hopes to have a government in place by Easter. After a polarising election campaign and bruised egos all round, that may prove optimistic.
Constituency results in detail
“Party” votes are cast for political parties. Half the seats in parliament are awarded to party lists such that parliament’s overall composition matches the second vote.